In related conversation, Doug Casey answers some questions on the subject.
L: What about the argument that Iran would use nuclear weapons on Israel, if it had them?
Doug: That's ridiculous. It's true that just one or two nukes would turn most of Israel to glass, but it's a matter of mutually assured destruction (MAD), just as the détente between the US and USSR was. Israel is reported to have about 200 nuclear weapons, and the Iranians know it. Even if they launched a successful first strike against Israel, they would get wiped off the face of the earth in response. The regime in Iran is repressive and borderline lunatic, but they aren't that stupid. No way are they going to attack Israel with nukes. They not only cannot, but should not, be singled out for exclusion from the nuclear club.L: But they're part of the axis of evil, don't you know?
Doug: Speaking of evil, it's evil to initiate the use of force or fraud. If Iran enriches uranium or even builds tools for war, that's not evil per se. But using force to stop them from doing something that is not in itself wrong is wrong, and that would make Iran's attackers the axis of evil.In my mind, the US is the biggest threat to peace in the world today. I can easily imagine those in power in the US starting a war over any silly pretext, real or imagined. It could easily happen by accident at this point. Things go wrong. Maybe some young hotheads in Iran's Revolutionary Guard decide to take a boat out and attack a US frigate – launch a few RPGs at it before they're blown out of the water. Then the US feels it needs to mete out some punishment and launches a strike against the base the boat came from – which would be attacking the Iranian mainland – and the thing spins completely out of control.
MAD only works when both parties are rational. Iran is controlled by fundamentalist fanatics, give them a couple of nukes and they will have plenty of volunteers ready to hump it on their backs to its final destination before pushing the big red shiny button to receive their 72 virgins. Honestly MAD is an actual rational with these a-holes, come on these are a people who set themselves on fire to make a point, wear suicide vests as a fashion statement and hold grudges for generations. Yea they'll be real reasonable with a nuke though.
ReplyDeleteSorry the regime in Iran is not concerned about rational things like dying in the process of wiping Israel off the map. You are applying a Western mindset to a decidedly Occidental mind ... and it doesn't always seem rational to us. But then again suicide bombers don't seem rational to us either.
ReplyDeletethe US is the biggest threat to peace in the world today.
ReplyDeleteIran would be more than happy to send suicide bombers, but not sacrifice the nation. Consider the last two disposed dictators who went to extraordinary lengths to stay alive.
1.- Sounds an awful lot like the case made for attacking Iraq.
ReplyDelete2.- I wish I shared your faith in US propaganda. Then again, No, I don't.
3.- Don't you think if Iran wanted to nuke Israel, they would've done it through other means?
4.- If you are correct, the only way to end the "threat" is total war and genocide. Limited strikes will only exacerbate tensions. Is that your answer, then?
When folks ask about how the Jews could've been persecuted by so many normal people, I look around, and see my nation on the same path.
Congrats, America.
And, btw, suicide attacks ARE rational, to a true believer.
ReplyDeleteNot to you, maybe, but to a true believer, they are.
And, that whole 72 virgins thing?
Please show me that this belief is, in fact, held by anyone other than Americans. More propaganda.
AP
And, btw, suicide attacks ARE rational, to a true believer.
ReplyDeleteNot to you, maybe, but to a true believer, they are.
And, that whole 72 virgins thing?
Please show me that this belief is, in fact, held by anyone other than Americans. More propaganda.
AP
Suicide attacks are, in reality, no different than a US soldier throwing himself on a grenade to save his squad. Or storming a MG nest that has your unit pinned down.
ReplyDeleteHow you perceive it is what makes it evil in your own mind.
Also, please note that it isn't the leaders who strap those bombs to themselves an go blow things/people up. It is some nobody they have convince/coerced into doing it. MAD does work because those leaders would NEVER strap that bomb to themselves.
ReplyDeleteFor all the promoting, supposing and assuming everyone is doing in their "analytics" I think it would make more sense to stop injecting our values and morals onto our supposed enemy's profile and look at their past actions instead..
ReplyDeleteIf we do that our govt shows itself as a bigger threat to our safety and liberty.. just sayin'
Yank lll
Sorry, with the statement of, "It's true that just one or two nukes would turn most of Israel to glass", Doug has shown he's no expert in nuclear weapons or their capabilities.
ReplyDeleteI think Mr. Casey's meaning was not literal.
ReplyDeleteA few selectively hit targets would effectively destroy Israel.
At least, that's what the "bomb Iran for Israel" folks tell me...
Seriously though, if Israel were to be hit in just a few places, it would be effectively neutralized.
Sure has been a lot of interest in the Muslim Caliphate lately... since Nine One One.
ReplyDeleteSure has. Wonder why that is?
ReplyDeleteAP